Surging Bucks host Allen, Celtics

Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sweet-stroking veteran Ray Allen has already recorded his 20,000th career point and will add to that mark tonight, when the Boston Celtics hit the road to Milwaukee for a showdown with the Bucks.

On Sunday, Allen hit a go-ahead three-pointer with 17.1 seconds left in regulation to lift the Celtics to an 86-83 comeback victory over the Washington Wizards at TD Garden. Allen ended with a game-high 25 points for Atlantic Division-leading Boston, which closed out the game on a 20-4 run in the final 6:33 of the fourth quarter for its fourth straight win.

"The bigs set great screens, and I came off," Allen said of his big shot. "I think I had more time but that's one thing about shooting the ball, I don't like sitting there on the three point line, once I come off its like the ball comes and I'm up in the air with it."

Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo chipped in 17 and 15 points, respectively, for the victors, while Kevin Garnett had eight points and 10 boards in the win.

The Celtics, seeded third in the Eastern Conference, have won two in a row away from Beantown and are 22-10 as the guest this season.

Bucks head coach Scott Skiles has his squad on the right path, as the Bucks are riding a three-game winning streak and have won nine of their last 10 games. Milwaukee opened a four-game homestand with Saturday's 92-85 victory over the LeBron James-less Cleveland Cavaliers at the Bradley Center thanks to 25 points from Brandon Jennings, who buried 5-of-7 from beyond the arc.

James was given the night off to rest a twisted right ankle and the Bucks took advantage. Carlos Delfino added 16 points and a career-high 13 rebounds, while Luc Mbah a Moute tallied 10 points and 11 boards for the Bucks, who got 15 points and nine boards from Andrew Bogut and seeded fifth in the East.

"When we had to get stops and a rebound, we did," said Skiles, who is two wins (348) away from the 350th victory of his coaching career. "We had a lot of guys chipping in."

Milwaukee's next win will match their win total from last season (34). It will also host the Jazz and Pacers on the residency and owns a 20-9 record in Wisconsin this season. The Bucks are unbeaten in their last four home games and are three wins shy of 500 at the Bradley Center. They are 11-2 at home in the new year.

Boston defeated Milwaukee, 98-89, back on December 8 this season and has won seven of eight and nine of the last 12 meetings.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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