NBA summer leagues shed more light on the draft

Basketball Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This year's rookie crop got its first taste of the NBA in the recently completed Orlando Summer League and the one in Las Vegas which concludes on Sunday. Though it's not the competition the player will see in the regular season, you can still get a good feel of the skill and talent level in this setting.

In watching these games, it wasn't difficult to come away with some of the steals and blunders of the draft. Here's some of the talent that stood out to me in good and bad ways:

WASHINGTON WIZARDS: John Wall exhibited the talent that earned him the first overall pick, but the point guard will have to cut down on the high turnover totals that plagued him in college along with working on his perimeter game.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS: Evan Turner, by his own admission, struggled pretty badly in Orlando. He was used to controlling the ball at Ohio State and didn't seem comfortable playing off the ball with Jrue Holliday running the offense. Holliday, by the way, looks like he's really ready to make a real impact this season.

NEW JERSEY NETS: Power forward Derrick Favors looked like the project he was labeled before the draft. He needs a lot of work on his post-up game and mid- range jumper. I think DeMarcus Cousins would've been a better choice at this spot. New Jersey's second pick of the first round, Damion James, was very impressive and looks like he's ready to make more of an impact than Favors in his first season.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: Wesley Johnson had problems creating his own shot off the dribble, which is something you definitely don't want to see from the fourth overall pick in the draft. I have a strong feeling the T-wolves will regret this selection.

SACRAMENTO KINGS: Sacramento has to be thrilled with the play of Cousins, its first-round pick. He scored inside and out, rebounded and passed the ball extremely well while showing a really good feel for the game. The former Kentucky center could turn out to be the second-best player in the draft.

DETROIT PISTONS: Greg Monroe did not look comfortable working in the low post. He appears to have a small forward's game in a power forward's body.

UTAH JAZZ: A lot of people questioned Utah's selection of Gordon Hayward with the ninth overall pick, and his play in Orlando showed why. He struggled to get his shot off and his lack of foot speed hurt him on defense. I thought Paul George would have been a much better choice than Hayward.

INDIANA PACERS: Speaking of George, he was clearly one of the standout players in the summer league. His athleticism, size and length will be assets along with his excellent basketball skills. George was selected 10th overall, but looks like he should have gone a bit higher. And speaking of going higher, Indiana's second-round pick (40th overall), Lance Stephenson, looks like he should have gone much earlier in the draft. Character questions scared off a lot of teams, but there doesn't seem to be much doubt about his skill set.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS: The defending champs didn't select until 43rd and 58th picks overall, but it looks like they came away with some NBA talent in small forward Devin Ebanks and power forward Derrick Caracter. Ebanks showed good play on both ends of the floor, while Caracter's play had me wondering how this kid lasted until the third-to-last pick in the draft. He can score with either hand around the basket, has a nice mid-range touch and showed the ability to pass the ball out of the post, which is helpful in the Lakers' triangle offense.

BOSTON CELTICS: Luke Harangody was one of the standouts in summer league play and looks like one of the draft's big steals after being taken 52nd overall. The Notre Dame power forward showed the willingness to bang inside and the ability to step outside and hit 3-pointers.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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