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12/30/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - All the leaves are brown and the sky is gray in Indianapolis, but in less than a week the Colts will be safe and warm in San Diego, preparing for the Chargers in the opening round of the AFC Playoffs.
Indianapolis, currently the hottest team entering the playoffs with nine straight wins, closed out the regular season with a 12-4 mark and extended its own NFL record by winning 12 or more games for the sixth straight year after last Sunday's 23-0 win over Tennessee. The resurgence came at the perfect time for the Colts, as they prepare to visit San Diego for the second time in just over a month.
"You don't take for granted winning football games," Colts All-Pro quarterback Peyton Manning said. To win 12 games this year, especially being 3-4, is a testament to our players and coaches for grinding away, continuing to work and staying together. Obviously, we want to keep it going."
The fifth-seeded Colts already defeated the Chargers, 23-20, on the road on November 23 thanks to Adam Vinatieri's 51-yard field goal with time expiring, avenging a loss to the Chargers in Indianapolis during the Divisional Round of last year's AFC Playoffs. But now San Diego is riding a four-game winning streak and defeated Denver Sunday night to capture the AFC West division crown. Running back and former NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson is heating up at the right time for the Chargers, while quarterback Philip Rivers has been playing much like his upcoming counterpart in Manning.
Manning is aiming for another MVP award this season and went 7-of-7 for 95 yards with one touchdown and a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Titans, extending his NFL record of 4,000-yard seasons to nine before leaving after one series of action. He has been sizzling in December, having thrown for eight touchdowns and no interceptions with a rating of no less than 110.0 in each game.
Manning sent the Colts into the playoffs for a seventh straight season with a victory in Jacksonville in Week 16, and has to be frothing at the mouth to get a few shots against San Diego's 31st-rated pass defense. Wideouts Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison and tight end Dallas Clark are all Pro Bowl-caliber players who will see a fair share of passes headed their way this Sunday under the California sun. Harrison just made history last Sunday by passing Cris Carter for second on the NFL's all-time reception list.
San Diego defensive backs Quentin Jammer, Antonio Cromartie and Antoine Cason combined for just six interceptions this season.
NOTES: Manning tied Drew Bledsoe for fifth on the NFL's all-time list for completions (3,839). He also tied Joe Montana for sixth place in NFL history with his 117th career victory...Harrison now has 1,102 receptions for 14,580 yards and 128 touchdowns for his career. He ended with 31 yards on seven catches on Sunday...Clark hauled in six passes for 59 yards on Sunday and finished the regular season with 77 receptions for 848 yards and six touchdowns...The Colts outgained Tennessee by a 274-30 margin in the first half...Colts backup quarterback Jim Sorgi finished 22-of-30 for 178 yards against Tennessee...With safeties Bob Sanders and Melvin Bullitt out, fourth- year veteran Matt Giordano made his first start of the season in the finale... Vinatieri surpassed 100 points for a 13th consecutive season.
INJURIES: The Colts rested a few players on Sunday, since the outcome had no effect on their season. Defensive starters Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Sanders were some of the players who sat. Linebacker and defensive captain Gary Brackett was inactive for a fourth straight game with a leg injury. Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez suffered a hip injury early in the game and did not return. Linebacker Philip Wheeler and guard Mike Pollak also went down.
UP NEXT: If the Colts can get running backs Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes off to a solid start in Sunday's playoff game, then Manning will enjoy an easier time picking apart the Chargers' defense. Indy ended a three-game losing streak to San Diego in November but trails the all-time series, 15-10. The Colts, who must stop Tomlinson and apply pressure on Rivers, have won four of the last seven matchups with San Diego.
TITANS GET AN EXTRA WEEK OF REST
The Tennessee Titans started preparing and resting for the playoffs even before Sunday's 23-0 loss at Indianapolis. Head coach Jeff Fisher didn't want to show much against a Colts team he may very well face one more time before the NFL season comes to a close.
With players such as rookie phenom Chris Johnson inactive and quarterback Kerry Collins getting pulled after just three plays, Fisher was so lax that third-string signal-caller Chris Simms made his first appearance in more than two years, finishing just 1-for-7 for seven yards. Vince Young, the one-time heralded face of the organization, threw for 55 yards and ran for an additional 25 in his first extensive action since going down in Week 1. Young threw one pass for 54 yards in a Thanksgiving Day win at Detroit in Week 13.
The AFC South champion Titans already locked up homefield advantage throughout the conference playoffs with a hard-fought win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16. Did they lose momentum by resting players in the regular-season finale at Indianapolis? Perhaps, but it won't be enough to slow Tennessee down in an AFC Divisional Playoff game set for January 10 at LP Field.
"Momentum is for the birds," Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan said. "You have to roll that thing out and play the game at a high level. If it's the Colts, that's great, but we look forward to playing any team at LP Field. We have two weeks to prepare and we look forward to the next challenge at hand."
While Tennessee's first playoff opponent has yet to be determined, the players are confident in their ability, no matter if it's Baltimore, Indianapolis or San Diego heading to Nashville next weekend. Johnson and fellow running back LenDale White played at an MVP level in the regular season, and the duo was a big reason why the Titans won their first 10 games and finished 13-3 for the first time since the 2000 campaign.
NOTES: Titans linebacker Keith Bulluck started his 113th consecutive game on Sunday...Titans defensive lineman Jacob Ford recorded his seventh sack of the season for the Titans, who were shut out for the first time since a 17-0 loss at Miami on November 7, 1999...White had 25 yards on seven carries against the Colts...The Titans allowed 12 sacks the entire season, nearly setting a franchise record. The Houston Oilers gave up 11 sacks in 1962 while residing in the AFL.
INJURIES: Tennessee reserve linebacker Josh Stamer suffered a groin injury in Sunday's loss. Other notable players who were deactivated by the Titans were center Kevin Mawae, defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, defensive ends Kyle Vanden Bosch and Dave Ball, linebacker David Thornton and cornerback Nick Harper. Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch are nursing injuries and hope to be ready for next week's postseason.
UP NEXT: The well-rested Titans will be ready for whomever steps foot on LP Field in next weekend's Divisional Round of the AFC Playoffs. In its most recent playoff game, Tennessee suffered a 17-6 loss at San Diego in an AFC Wild Card showdown at Qualcomm Stadium on January 6, 2008. The Titans blew a 6-0 halftime lead and gave up 17 unanswered points.
TEXANS IMPRESS IN SEASON FINALE
Houston Texans sack master Mario Williams said the team's objective in last Sunday's finale was to ruin the Chicago Bears' season. Williams and the Texans did just that in a 31-24 victory at Reliant Stadium, knocking the Bears out of the playoff picture and into hibernation.
Williams posted a sack in the win and finished with 12 on the season, two shy of a career-high 14 set a year ago. He helped the Texans finish 8-8 for the second consecutive year, but will not have defensive coordinator Richard Smith back in 2009.
Smith, defensive backs coach Jon Hoke and defensive line coach Jethro Franklin were all dismissed Tuesday after directing a unit that finished 27th in points allowed (394), 22nd in yards allowed (336.6 ypg), 23rd against the rush (122.6 ypg) and 17th against the pass (213.9 ypg).
It is still uncertain if assistant head coach Alex Gibbs will return for next season. Gibbs came out of retirement to sign a one-year contract with the Texans last offseason and his deal expires in mid-February. Ray Rhodes served as assistant defensive backs coach and is expected to return in 2009. Rhodes, a former NFL Coach of the Year with Philadelphia, has the admiration from Kubiak.
"I'm expecting Ray to come back and help our football team in some capacity," Kubiak added. "I think he definitely helped us. I know he helped me. I think a lot of Ray Rhodes, and like I said, I expect him to be here helping us again."
Williams and linebacker DeMeco Ryans were the leaders of Houston's mediocre stop unit, with Ryans leading the team in tackles once again with 112. Williams left Sunday's game in the third quarter with a groin injury, but the problem is not expected to be serious.
Top cornerback Dunta Robinson returned from a devastating leg injury that occurred last season to post two picks and six passes defensed in 11 games in 2008. Robinson is Houston's career interceptions leader with 13 and will be a free agent this offseason.
Robinson has openly stated he would like to finish his career as a Texan and Kubiak feels the same way. Kubiak expressed his pleasure in Robinson during their one-on-one meetings, but understands it's a business. The Texans drafted Robinson 10th overall in 2004, and he missed the first six games of the 2008 season while rehabbing knee and hamstring injuries.
Even though the Texans defense struggled most of the season, the unit was instrumental in helping the team win five of the last six games of the season. The Texans became the 10th team in NFL history to start 0-4 or worse and end .500 or better.
While the defense had its moments in 2008, it was the potent Houston offense that stole the show.
Houston has a new version of the Triplets, much like the Cowboys of the 1990's did with quarterback Troy Aikman, running back Emmitt Smith and wide receiver Michael Irvin. The Texans put up some of the best numbers in franchise history behind quarterback Matt Schaub, All-Pro wideout Andre Johnson and rookie running back Steve Slaton. Houston ended third in the NFL in total offense (382.1 ypg) and fourth in passing yards (266.7) this season, and owe a lot of credit to Johnson.
Johnson hauled in 10 passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's win and had at least 10 catches in a game for an NFL-record seventh time this season. He led the league with 115 receptions and 1,575 receiving yards, and recorded 100 yards or more receiving eight times. Johnson's receiving yards are the most in the league since Rams receiver Torry Holt had 1,696 yards in 2003.
"Any time we can get (Johnson) the football and give him the opportunity to make big plays, he does it," Schaub said of the Pro Bowl-bound wideout. "That's a credit to a lot of things we do in the run game and other guys making plays, so they can't focus on him as much. That leaves him to make some plays."
Slaton made some headlines in the backfield this season and finished the year with 1,282 rushing yards, the sixth-most in the NFL and the highest total among rookies this season. He posted 92 yards and a score on 20 touches versus the Bears to end the season with nine rushing scores. The West Virginia product eclipsed the century mark rushing six times in 2008 and has a bright future ahead of him.
Slaton, Johnson and Schaub will do some more damage next season if they can all stay healthy. Schaub missed some time with health issues and returned to pass for a career high 3,043 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
NOTES: Houston posted 455 yards of offense and held Chicago to 69 yards rushing on Sunday...The Texans finished the year averaging 382.1 yards per game...Schaub finished 27-of-36 for 328 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears and did not throw an interception. He had a passer rating of 121.1...Backup running back Ryan Moats had 38 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.
INJURIES: The only significant injury on Sunday was to Williams' groin. Kubiak said the trainers tried to tape Williams' leg to no avail.
UP NEXT: Houston has the potential to make some noise in the AFC South next season. It split the season series with Tennessee and Jacksonville and lost both meetings with Indianapolis. Kubiak has a strong nucleus of talent right now that can only get better from here on out. According to the team's official site, Houston will host Tennessee, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Seattle, San Francisco, Oakland, New England and the New York Jets in 2009. The Texans will visit the Titans, Colts, Jaguars, Cardinals, Rams, Dolphins, Bills and Bengals.
JAGS SET FOR BUSY OFFSEASON
The Jacksonville Jaguars must start making changes immediately, and perhaps a quality draft for once can finally make a difference. Jaguars cornerback and 2002 Buck Buchanan Award winner Rashean Mathis is the only Pro Bowl player drafted by Jacksonville over the last six years.
One Pro Bowl selection in six years is just plain horrible. No wonder, then, that vice president of player personnel James 'Shack' Harris is already without a job. So now it's up to former pro and college scouting director Gene Smith to get cracking with head coach Jack Del Rio on breaking down talent in the college ranks in order to restore the franchise to glory.
Besides terrible drafts, the Jaguars dealt with injuries, a divided locker room and money issues in 2008 after enjoying a deep run into the playoffs a year prior. Jacksonville went 11-5 in 2007, defeated Pittsburgh in the opening round of the playoffs and almost handed New England its first loss of the season in the divisional round. A 27-7 loss versus Baltimore this past Sunday dropped the Jags to 5-11, the team's worst finish since an identical mark in 2003. The Jaguars also ended last in their division for the first time since the 2001 squad ended fifth in the former AFC Central.
Jacksonville's once-dominant ground attack featuring Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor took a huge step back this season, largely because of a few season-ending injuries along the offensive line. Chris Naeole, Richard Collier, Mo Williams and Vinny Manuwai were all lost for the season and Brad Meester battled through pain early in the year. Taylor was also inactive for the final three games due to injury and may not be back in 2009, since it's quite clear Jones-Drew is the featured back for years to come.
Quarterback David Garrard will be in Jacksonville for years to come as well, but fans probably are thinking twice after what they witnessed this season. Garrard was rewarded with a contract extension in the offseason after a highly-efficient year. Even though he passed for 3,620 yards this season, Garrard was still picked off 13 times and threw 15 touchdown passes. In Sunday's loss to the Ravens, Garrard went 14-of-25 for 127 yards with a pair of interceptions and a touchdown strike. He had 18 touchdown passes to just three interceptions in 2007.
The team tried to bring in some help for Garrard by adding wideouts Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson. The move was a huge failure, as both receivers battled injuries and combined for 16 receptions, 210 yards and two touchdowns. Some receivers in the league can do that in one game. Matt Jones led the Jaguars with 65 catches for 761 yards and a pair of scores despite missing the last three games because of a suspension stemming from an offseason arrest.
Fellow wide receiver Reggie Williams reportedly took the nameplate from his locker after Sunday's loss and feels he will not be in Jacksonville's future plans. Williams had a team-high three touchdown catches and couldn't do much to bail out a streaky Garrard. Dennis Northcutt is not the answer at wideout either, and you can only use Jones-Drew out of the backfield so many times.
"As a coach and quarterback, we understand that you're going to get the criticism when you don't get wins," Del Rio said on the team's official site. "I think David's a good quarterback. Obviously, you want to throw touchdowns and not interceptions. I think he battled hard all year. I think there are things he'll do better going forward."
Del Rio can only hope, since he's walking on egg shells right now despite inking a contract extension over the summer as well. A 2-8 finish over the last 10 games, which was exactly what happened under Del Rio, certainly shouldn't prevent anyone from updating their resume, either.
The Jacksonville defense also deteriorated this season under the former NFL linebacker's watch. The stop unit had established a reputation for being one of the best in the league, but injuries and lack of motivation took their toll in 2008.
Big defensive tackle John Henderson seemed lost without running mate Marcus Stroud, who was traded to the Buffalo Bills in the offseason. Middle linebacker Mike Peterson had a fallout with Del Rio during a team meeting and eventually lost his starting job, while also being briefly sent home for insubordination. Linebackers Justin Durant, Clint Ingram and Daryl Smith are building blocks for a new defense.
The team, which could use help up front alongside Henderson, brought in defensive back Drayton Florence in the offseason, a move that added nothing to the mix. Luckily the Jaguars have cornerback and leading tackler Brian Williams and safeties Gerald Sensabaugh and Reggie Nelson. Brian Williams and Nelson each had two interceptions and Sensabaugh finished tied with Mathis for the team lead with four picks.
Jacksonville was 13th against the run and 24th in defending the pass in 2008. A year ago the unit was number two overall, fourth against the run and 10th against the pass.
NOTES: Running back Alvin Pearman was signed Thursday to replace Taylor on the roster and scored on a 23-yard pass from Garrard on Sunday...The Jaguars have made the playoffs only twice in Del Rio's six seasons with the team...Garrard became the first Jags quarterback to start all 16 games in a season under Del Rio and the first Jacksonville signal-caller to start 16 games since Mark Brunell in 2000...Rookie defensive end Derrick Harvey had a career-high two sacks on Sunday and finished the year with 3 1/2...Defensive end Reggie Hayward led the team with 4 1/2 sacks this season. Hayward played in all 16 games for the first time since 2004 and third time in eight seasons.
INJURIES: There were no significant injuries for Jacksonville on Sunday.
UP NEXT: Jacksonville has a lot of work to do in order to save face for the 2009 season. Del Rio already stated that the Jaguars will be a smash-mouth team once again, starting with offseason conditioning programs. The talent is there in most positions, and the team just needs a few adjustments on both sides of the ball and minor changes to the coaching staff to make another run at the playoffs. Jacksonville has a busy schedule next season with Indianapolis, Tennessee, Houston, Buffalo, Miami, Arizona, St. Louis and Kansas City heading to town. The Jaguars will visit the Colts, Titans, Texans, Patriots, Jets, 49ers, Seahawks and Browns.
<< D'Backs sign Snyder
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks agreed to terms with
catcher Chris Snyder on a three-year contract through the 2011 season with a
club option for 2012 on Tuesday. No further terms of the agreement were
disclos
<< Goins and Perrone win 2008 Media Eclipse Awards
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Photographer Matt Goins and writer Vinnie
Perrone have been honored with 2008 Media Eclipse Awards. The Eclipse Awards
are distributed by The National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA), Daily
Racing
<< 49ers dismiss offensive coordinator Martz
Santa Clara, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator
Mike Martz was dismissed from the coaching staff on Tuesday, as announced by
head coach Mike Singletary.
Martz, who coordinated the prolific offensive jugger
<< Giants place CB Madison on IR
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Giants placed cornerback
Sam Madison was on injured reserve on Tuesday.
Madison broke his right ankle in the regular season finale against the
Minnesota Vikings.
New York als
NFC South: Changes in store for Bucs following collapse >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Four straight losses to end the regular season have the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers missing out on the NFC's postseason parade, an idea that
seemed rather far-fetched entering the month of December. That startling and
epic cave-in
NFC East: Eagles receive perfect holiday gift >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Eagles began the final day of the NFL's
regular season in an anxious state of uncertainty, not knowing whether their
tenuous playoff chances would remain intact when they took the field for last
Sunday's mid-
Own goal hands Villa win against Hull City >>
Hull, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kamil Zayatte scored an own goal in the 88th
minute, helping Aston Villa edge Hull City 1-0 on Tuesday to move into fourth
place in the English Premier League.
Villa ran its unbeaten streak to eight match
Barcelona's in a Liga of its own >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barcelona resumed training Monday
following Spain's short winter break, and captain Carles Puyol downplayed the
jaw dropping four-month run that capped 2008.
"I think we need to improve, and that's what we
American Idol odds : Blake Lewis the Early Standout
An important American Idol betting lines recap from February 20 Guys episode. The 12 men came out flat overall with Blake Lewis appearing to have the early edge after the first hour and a half.
Rudy - was quite good singing "Free Ride" to start off. Randy was not impressed though. Paula thought he started off fantastic. "Never had anyone stop off so lively" said Paula but Simon (who does not like Rudy) does not feel he has a distinct voice and was not impressed either.
Brandon was a little pitchy according to Randy and Paula agreed. Simon said he was a good singer but the song was "too safe" and he needs to make an impact. He was listed at +1200 odds or $1200 paid out on a $100 bet should he win the competition.
Big favorite Sundance came in with a flat version of "Knights in White Satin" and the judges let him have it, including Paula. Randy claimed the song was out of pitch throughout.
Korean American - and a Jenny Woo favorite - Paul Kim was up next. Another pitchy flat one but Randy said he still liked his potential. Kim at +3000 odds was said to have sung a "third rate version of that (George Michael) song" according to Simon Cowell. He sang "Careless Whisper".
22 year old Chris Richardson was up next. He was listed with +1100 odds coming in. He got the best response from the judges though Simon did not believe the vocal was that great.
Nick was boring and pitchy. Simon didn't think he was that bad though and predicted he would be back next week. Nick Pedro was a big +3000 dog coming into this competition.
Beat boxer Blake Lewis was listed with early +1000 odds or $1000 payout on a $100 bet if he were to become the next American Idol winner odds . These of course were the early odds. He was considered original for picking an "odd song". He did not beat box and the judges felt it was the best vocal of the night.
Sanjaya came in as the second biggest favorite after Chris Sligh but his performance Tuesday night was not very good.
Chris Sleigh was the early favorite at +450 odds. Great voice and a great sense of humor. He's a real standout. Randy felt it was on point but maybe ahead of the chorus a little bit. Simon Cowell said he felt like he was in some "sort of weird student gig".
Jared Cotter followed. He was listed with +2000 odds early on to win the competition. The judges felt he needs to take more risks but looked good.
22-year old AJ Talbado, who has tried out for American Idol five times, was up next. "Kind of a theme park performance" said Simon. Though the judges felt he performed okay. Simon did feel AJ might be better than he originally thought.
Phil - this season's military favorite - came into this competition with +1200 odds to win the competition. He was the last to perform. He was certainly strong enough to get through this stage of the competition and perhaps the best one after a shaky start.
Tomorrow night, the ladies perform and I sure hope they do a better job than the boys. Check out all the American Idol betting odds here.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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